Emeritus
Eastern Ecological Science Center
Email:
jnichols@usgs.gov
Office Phone:
301-497-5660
ORCID:
0000-0002-7631-2890
Location
PTX - Gabrielson Office
12100 Beech Forest Road
Laurel
, MD
20708
US
Supervisor:
Julien Martin
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The global mean surface temperature increased 0.85°C during the period 1880 – 2012. Some climate models predict an additional warming of up 2 to 4 ◦ C over the next 100 years for the primary breeding grounds for North American ducks. Such an increase has been predicted to reduce mid - continent breeding duck populations by >70%. Managing continental duck populations in the face of climate change requires understanding how waterfowl have responded to historical spatio - temporal climatic variation. However, such responses to climate may be obscured by how ducks respond to variation in land cover. We estimated effects of climate on settlement patterns of breeding ducks in the Prairie - Parkland Region (PPR), boreal...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation,
Report;
Tags: Alaska CASC,
Birds,
Wildlife and Plants,
adaptive management,
agriculture, All tags...
boreal forest,
climate change,
colonization,
extinction,
fire,
occupancy models,
prairie-parkland region,
precipitation,
temperature,
tundra, Fewer tags
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Appropriate ecological indicators of climate change can be used to measure concurrent changes in ecological systems, inform management decisions, and potentially to project the consequences of climate change. However, many of the available indicators for North American birds do not account for imperfect observation. We proposed to use correlated-detection occupancy models to develop indicators from the North American Breeding Bird Survey data. The indicators were used to test hypotheses regarding changes in range and distribution of breeding birds. The results will support the Northeast Climate Science Center’s Science Agenda, including the science priority: researching ecological vulnerability and species response...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2014,
2014,
Birds,
Birds,
CASC, All tags...
CASC,
Climate indicators,
Completed,
Migratory birds,
North American Breeding Bird Survey,
Northeast,
Northeast CASC,
Northeast CASC,
Projects by Region,
Wildlife and Plants,
Wildlife and Plants,
occupancy models, Fewer tags
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No products are available for this SSP project at this time.
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No products for this SSP project are available at this time.
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Researchers from North Carolina State University and the USGS integrated models of urbanization and vegetation dynamics with the regional climate models to predict vegetation dynamics and assess how landscape change could impact priority species, including North American land birds. This integrated ensemble of models can be used to predict locations where responses to climate change are most likely to occur, expressing results in terms of species persistence to help resource managers understand the long-term sustainability of bird populations.
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2011,
Birds,
Birds,
CASC,
Climate Change, All tags...
Completed,
LCC,
Projects by Region,
SERAP,
Science Tools for Managers,
Science Tools for Managers,
South Atlantic LCC,
South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative,
South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative,
Southeast,
Southeast CASC,
Wildlife and Plants,
Wildlife and Plants, Fewer tags
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