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Chip Fletcher

Strong evidence on climate change underscores the need for actions to reduce the impacts of sea-level rise. Global mean sea level may rise 0.18–0.48 m by mid-century1, 2 and 0.5–1.4 m by the end of the century2. Besides marine inundation, it is largely unrecognized that low-lying coastal areas may also be vulnerable to groundwater inundation, which is localized coastal-plain flooding due to a rise of the groundwater table with sea level. Measurements of the coastal groundwater elevation and tidal influence in urban Honolulu, Hawaii, allow estimates of the mean water table, which was used to assess vulnerability to groundwater inundation from sea-level rise. We find that 0.6 m of potential sea-level rise causes substantial...
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Projections of Future Coral Reef Communities in DOI-Managed Coastal Areas in the Hawaiian Islands
The conditions of coral reefs in the Hawaiian Islands are predicted to decline significantly from climate change over the next 100 years. To better prepare for the impacts of climate change on Hawaiian reefs, the research team uses a system of models to simulate ocean waves and circulation, rainfall and storm run-off, and coral reef community dynamics through the year 2100. These models will identify reef areas that are either vulnerable or resilient to the many stressors that the future may hold for reefs. The team’s hope is that this work can identify areas that might benefit from management actions to minimize local stressors such as land-based pollution. Through a collaborative partnership with state and federal...
Increased water levels, erosion, salinity, and flooding associated with sea-level rise threaten coastal and wetland habitats of endangered waterbirds, sea turtles, monk seals, and migratory shorebirds. As sea-level rises the greatest challenge will be prioritizing management actions in response to impacts. We provide decision makers with two solutions to adaptively manage the impacts of SLR and apply these methods to three coastal wetland environments at Keālia National Wildlife Refuge (south Maui), Kanaha State Wildlife Sanctuary (north Maui), and James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge (north O‘ahu). Firstly, due to the low gradient of most coastal plain environments, the rate of SLR impact will rapidly accelerate...
Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens islands and coastal communities due to vulnerable infrastructure and populations concentrated in low-lying areas. LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data were used to produce high-resolution DEMs (Digital Elevation Model) for Kahului and Lahaina, Maui, to assess the potential impacts of future SLR. Two existing LiDAR datasets from USACE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) were compared and calibrated using the Kahului Harbor tide station. Using tidal benchmarks is a valuable approach for referencing LiDAR in areas lacking an established vertical datum, such as in Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands. Exploratory analysis of the USACE...
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Temporal and Spatial Pattern of Sea-level Rise Impacts to Coastal Wetlands and Other Ecosystems
Sea-level rise (SLR) is one of the biggest threats to the Hawaiian coastline, and resource managers of coastal wetlands in Hawai‘i must begin planning now for future impacts. The majority of these impacts are expected to occur from 2040 – 2100. PICCC funded research from the University of Hawai’i at Mānoa has provided decision makers with tools to assist in adaptively managing the impacts of SLR at three coastal wetland environments in south Maui, north Maui, and James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge. They also ranked threats on the basis of input from wetland management experts to develop maps of SLR impacts and vulnerability. The researchers concluded that decision makers must quickly act to develop and implement...
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