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Kristine Sowl

We propose to develop a Yukon-Kuskokwim Berry Outlook: a data- and observer-driven ecological monitoring and modeling framework that forecasts changes in berry habitat and abundance with climate and environmental change. Berry-producing plants are extremely important to human and wildlife communities of the Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta. Berry yield can be influenced by snow cover, rainfall, soil moisture, air temperature, availability of insect pollinators, and seasonal weather extremes; and berry habitat can be altered by more frequent tidal inundation, increased frequency of storm surges, and permafrost deterioration, all of which may be significantly impacted by climate change. In a recent survey of Alaskan environmental...
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The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) encompasses the southernmost, warmest parts of the arctic tundra biome and is renowned for its high biological productivity and large subsistence-based human population. Ice-rich permafrost currently is widespread and strongly influences terrestrial and aquatic habitats, including local topography, vegetation, soil hydrology, and the water balance of lakes. Ground temperatures are near the freezing point, however, and recent projections indicate that the YKD is poised for widespread loss of permafrost by the end of this century. This has implications for the region’s extensive and heretofore stable terrestrial and aquatic habitats. Tundra wildfire is a common ecological “pulse” disturbance...
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