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Michael D Samuel

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This data set describes the predicted daily climate (temperature and rainfall) for low, mid, and high-elevations on Mona Loa, Island of Hawaii from 2098-2100. Climate predictions are based on 3 alternative climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, A1B, and RCP 8.5) - see Liao et al. 2015 for more details and climate references. The predicted daily risk of susceptible Hawaiian honeycreepers are based on the daily climate data, mosquito abundance and other factors. Also see Samuel et al. 2011 The dynamics, transmission, and population impacts of avian malaria in native Hawaiian birds: a modeling approach. Ecological Applications 21:2960-2973 for description of the epidemiological model used for avian malaria risk predictions.
Abstract (from ScienceDirect): Avian malaria has played a significant role in causing extinctions, population declines, and limiting the elevational distribution of Hawaiian honeycreepers. Most threatened and endangered honeycreepers only exist in high-elevation forests where the risk of malaria infection is limited. Because Culex mosquito vectors and avian malaria dynamics are strongly influenced by temperature and rainfall, future climate change is predicted to expand malaria infection to high-elevation forests and intensify malaria infection at lower elevations, likely resulting in future extinctions and loss of avian biodiversity in Hawaii. Novel, landscape-level mosquito control strategies are promising, but...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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In 2013, a large blinded, paired placebo-controlled field trial for the prairie dog oral sylvatic plague vaccine started in the Western US. On 17 paired plots, vaccine and placebo plots, small rodents were trapped annually for 3-5 consecutive nights (when weather allowed). Up on capture, we documented the trap numbers and the processed animals. We noted standard biological information (species, sex, age) and took samples (fleas, blood, hair and whiskers). When logistics allowed we also trapped diurnal animals. Hair and whisker samples were taped to a transparent sheet and scored for the presence (high dose 1, low dose 2) or absence (0) of Rhodamine B fluorescence (RB dataset)
Abstract (from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13005/abstract): Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline...
ISLAND OF HAWAI‘I, Hawaii — Hawai‘i, the name alone elicits images of rhythmic traditional dancing, breathtaking azure sea coasts and scenes of vibrant birds flitting through lush jungle canopy. Unfortunately, the future of many native Hawaiian birds looks grim as diseases carried by mosquitoes are due to expand into higher elevation safe zones. A new study published in Global Change Biology, by researchers at the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk to native Hawaiian bird populations in the coming century. Read More in the USGS Press Release: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=4270#.Vjo2436rSUl
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