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Prairie, James R

We present a technique for providing seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasts at several locations simultaneously on a river network. The framework is an integration of two recent approaches: the nonparametric multimodel ensemble forecast technique and the nonparametric space-time disaggregation technique. The four main components of the proposed framework are as follows: (1) an index gauge streamflow is constructed as the sum of flows at all the desired spatial locations; (2) potential predictors of the spring season (April?July) streamflow at this index gauge are identified from the large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land system, including snow water equivalent; (3) the multimodel ensemble forecast approach is used to...
In the western United States many rivers experience high salinity resulting from natural and anthropogenic sources. This impacts the water quality and hence, is closely monitored. The salinity is closely linked with streamflow quantity in that, a higher flow brings with it more salt but also provides substantial dilution to reduce the salt concentration and vice-versa during low flow regimes. Decision makers typically plan strategies for salinity mitigation and evaluate impacts of water management policy options on salinity in the basin using decision support models. These models require statistically consistent basin wide scenarios of streamflow and salinity. Recognizing this need, we develop a basin wide stochastic...
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