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Rick Lader

Abstract (from RMetS): Snowfall and snow season length across Alaska control the surface hydrology and underlying soil properties and also influence near‐surface air temperature by changing the energy balance. Current projections of warming suggest that considerable change will occur to key snow parameters, possibly contributing to extensive infrastructure damage from thawing permafrost, an increased frequency of rain‐on‐snow events and reduced soil recharge in the spring due to shallow end‐of‐winter snowpack. This study investigates projected changes to mean annual snowfall, dates of snow onset and snowmelt and extreme snowfall for Alaska, using dynamically downscaled reanalysis and climate model simulations. These...
Abstract (from AMS): Some of the largest climatic changes in the Arctic have been observed in Alaska and the surrounding marginal seas. Near-surface air temperature (T2m), precipitation (P), snowfall, and sea ice changes have been previously documented, often in disparate studies. Here, we provide an updated, long-term trend analysis (1957–2021; n = 65 years) of such parameters in ERA5, NOAA U.S. Climate Gridded Dataset (NClimGrid), NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Alaska climate division, and composite sea ice products preceding the upcoming Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) and other near-future climate reports. In the past half century, annual T2m has broadly increased across...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
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Assessing the Risk to National Park Service Lands in Alaska Imposed by Rapidly Warming Temperatures
The observed rate of warming in many National Park Service (NPS) lands in Alaska has accelerated soil subsidence and increased landslide frequency, thereby threatening public access, subsistence activities and infrastructure in NPS regions. Areas most affected by this change are along the Denali Park Road, the proposed Ambler Road through Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve, and the McCarthy Road in Wrangell – St. Elias National Park and Preserve. In light of this, resource managers need highly accurate, localized climate information to assess and plan for future landslide hazards. This project addresses concerns and management implications in these focus areas with emerging issues that have been outlined...
Southeast Alaska is a topographically complex region that is experiencing rapid rates of change with climate regimes that range from temperate rainforest to expansive glaciers and icefields. Global climate models – with a typical spatial resolution of 100 km – poorly resolve this area, while recent downscaling efforts have sought to improve upon existing deficiencies. This research produced hourly dynamically downscaled climate model simulations at 1- and 4-km spatial resolution for both historical (1981-2019) and future periods (2031-2060) across Southeast Alaska. Particular focus was placed on three key watersheds: 1) Montana Creek near Juneau, 2) Indian River near Sitka and 3) Staney Creek on Prince of Wales...
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Future Changes in Snow Avalanches in Southern Alaska
Ongoing climate change is impacting areas of snow and ice in high latitudes and high elevation areas and is thus anticipated to change the frequency and magnitude of snow and ice related hazards. In Alaska, snow avalanches are the deadliest natural hazard, and they affect a large portion of the state, significantly impacting the natural landscape, the built environment, and public safety. As climate warming continues, it is expected that Alaska’s vulnerability to avalanche hazards will also continue to increase. Currently, there is limited public awareness and available information to support adaptation, mitigation and preparedness efforts for these hazards. The goal of this project is to improve understanding...
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