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Sergey Marchenko

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Development of the Alaska Integrated Ecosystem Model to Illustrate Future Landscape Change
Ongoing and future climate change throughout Alaska has the potential to affect terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide to the people of Alaska and the nation. These services include the gathering of food and fiber by Alaskan communities, the importance of ecosystems to recreation, cultural, and spiritual activities of people in Alaska, and the way that land cover and vegetation in ecosystems affect temperature and water flow (runoff, flooding etc.) throughout the state. Assessments of the effects of climate change on these “ecosystem services” have been hindered by a lack of tools (e.g. computer models) capable of forecasting future landscapes in a changing climate while taking into account numerous...
This report describes the progress made by the Integrated Ecosystem Model (IEM) for Alaska and Northwest Canada Project for the full duration of the project (September 1, 2011 through August 31, 2016).This primary goal in this project was to develop the IEM modeling framework to integrate the driving components for and the interactions among disturbance regimes, permafrost dynamics, hydrology, and vegetation succession/migration for Alaska and Northwest Canada. The major activities of the project include (1) development and delivery of input data sets, (2) model coupling, (3) evaluation and applications of fire and vegetation dynamics, (4) evaluation and application of ecosystem carbon and energy balance, (5) evaluation...
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Assessing Permafrost Changes and Related Impacts on Alaskan Infrastructure and Communities
Permafrost is a layer of perennially frozen soil that primarily exists in and around the Arctic and Antarctic regions of the world. While a shallow near-surface soil layer (called active layer) thaws during the summer and re-freezes in the winter, the underlying permafrost remains perennially frozen, often underlying buildings, roads, and other infrastructure. As warmer temperatures become more common, thawing of permafrost could have major consequences for Alaska. Where thawing has already occurred, dramatic changes in ecosystems and existing infrastructure are evident. For example, thawing permafrost along the ocean shore and riverbanks in Northern Alaska is causing substantial coastal erosion and is impacting...
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