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Werner, Kevin

To test the accuracy of statistically downscaled precipitation estimates from numerical weather prediction models, a set of experiments to study what space and time scales are appropriate to obtain downscaled precipitation forecasts with maximum skill have been carried out. Fourteen-day forecasts from the 1998 version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Medium-Range Forecast (MRF) model were used in this study. It has been previously found that downscaled temperature fields have significant skill even up to 5 days of forecast lead time, but there is practically no valuable skill in the downscaled precipitation forecasts. Low skill in precipitation forecasts revolves around two main issues....
A method is introduced to generate conditioned daily precipitation and temperature time series at multiple stations. The method resamples data from the historical record “nens” times for the period of interest (nens = number of ensemble members) and reorders the ensemble members to reconstruct the observed spatial (intersite) and temporal correlation statistics. The weather generator model is applied to 2307 stations in the contiguous United States and is shown to reproduce the observed spatial correlation between neighboring stations, the observed correlation between variables (e.g., between precipitation and temperature), and the observed temporal correlation between subsequent days in the generated weather sequence....
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