Martin Hoerling, and Jon K Eischeid, Past Peak Water in the Southwest: .
Summary
Nobody relishes being “past peak� anything. Whether it’s the prime of our human existence or the prime of Nature’s abundance, the notion of having less rather than more is often vehemently denied. But demand growth in the face of production and storage decline has severe consequences, especially when existing uses already consume the available supply. The lifeblood of the Southwest is the Colorado River, which is increasingly impacted by climate forces not previously experienced. The recent drought prompts concern among water users and water stewards alike, and requires the scientific community to probe whether a sustained threat is rising to our already perilous moisture balance. The consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel [...]
Summary
Nobody relishes being “past peak� anything. Whether it’s the prime of our human existence or the prime of Nature’s abundance, the notion of having less rather than more is often vehemently denied. But demand growth in the face of production and storage decline has severe consequences, especially when existing uses already consume the available supply. The lifeblood of the Southwest is the Colorado River, which is increasingly impacted by climate forces not previously experienced. The recent drought prompts concern among water users and water stewards alike, and requires the scientific community to probe whether a sustained threat is rising to our already perilous moisture balance. The consensus of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001) affirms that Earth’s atmosphere is accumulating unprecedented quantities of carbon dioxide that are now causing detectable increases in surface air temperature. Is this ongoing drought an early warning sign of something other than the historical norm, and the gateway to a future climate with more severe drought hazards? What is known about the sensitivity of moisture conditions in the Southwest to a changing climate? To seek answers to these questions, we have undertaken a systematic analysis of a new suite of climate model simulations from the arsenal of tools contributing to the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). What is the news for the Southwest?