Riparian cottonwood (Populus deltoides) forests form the one of the most extensive deciduous forest ecosystems in arid regions of the western United States. However, cottonwood populations are threatened by flow alteration and channel degradation caused by dams, water diversions, and groundwater pumping. We developed a stochastic, density-dependent, population model to (1) consolidate information concerning cottonwood population dynamics in a conceptual and analytical framework, (2) determine whether complex forest stand dynamics can be predicted from basic cottonwood vital rates and river hydrology, and (3) aid in planning prescribed floods by projecting how altered flow regimes might affect populations. The model describes how annual [...]