We use a spatially explicit landscape model to investigate the potential role of rainfall on shrub?grass transitions in the Jornada Basin of southern New Mexico during the past century. In long-term simulations (1915?1998) along a 2700 m transect running from a dry lake bed to the foothills of a small mountain, we test two hypotheses: (i) that wetter winters and drier summers may have facilitated shrub encroachment in grasslands, and (ii) that increases in large precipitation events may have increased soil water recharge at deeper layers, thus favoring shrub establishment and growth. Our model simulations generally support the hypothesis that wetter winters and drier summers may have played a key role, but we are unable to reproduce [...]