Populations with small effective sizes are at risk for inbreeding depression and loss of adaptive potential. Variance in reproductive success is one of several factors reducing effective population size (Ne) below the actual population size (N). Here, we investigate the effects of polygynous (skewed) mating and variation in female breeding success on the effective size of a small population of the Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus), a ground nesting bird with a lek mating system. During a two-year field study, we recorded attendance of marked birds at leks, male mating success, the reproductive success of radio-tagged females, and annual survival. We developed simulations to estimate the distribution of male reproductive success. [...]
