Predicting the Risk of Species Extinctions Due to Sea-Level Rise in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

Start Date

2009

End Date

2011

Release Date

2009

Scenarios of projected global climate change predict that sea level rise may inundate coastal and low elevation Pacific islands. The Northwestern Hawaiian Islands include 300,000 square kilometers of ocean waters and 10 sub-tropical islands and atolls of high conservation value. Designated as Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, the islands provide habitat for the largest and most important assemblages of tropical seabirds in the world, with 14 million birds (22 species) and 11 endangered species of terrestrial birds and plants. Existing models of projected terrestrial habitat loss vary greatly between islands, but even small increases in sea level may result in loss of critical habitat and increase risk of extinctions of species restricted to low lying atolls. Thus, current conservation strategies to address climate change are based primarily on building interconnected systems of corridors and reserves. These strategies may be inadequate for many island species that are entirely blocked from shifting their geographic ranges by anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, such as loss of habitat, urbanization, introduced predators (absent from the remote low lying islands), or by behavioral and geographic constraints on dispersal. These island ecosystems require downsized spatial and temporal models to identify, assess, and manage risks to unique biological resources. By identifying areas and species most vulnerable, resource managers can plan for management scenarios such restorations or as the intentional transport of species to prevent species extinction (i.e. “assisted migration” or translocation). This project sought to elucidate uncertainty for land managers, using coastal topographic models of sea level change, and wildlife population carrying capacity and persistence estimates to provide the information needed to rank species vulnerability and better manage biological resources, given the modern pace of climate change and the need for multidimensional decision making. Integrated temporal and spatially explicit models are needed to assess vulnerability of select Hawaiian seabirds, endangered species, and their habitats of the low lying atolls. Lastly we proposed to create transparent multidimensional evaluation criteria to integrate sea level rise scenarios, vulnerability criteria, species extinction risks, and management scenarios such as habitat restoration and translocations.

ScienceBase WMS

• National CASC
• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers