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Assessing the Vulnerability of Species and Ecosystems to Projected Future Climate Change in the Pacific Northwest

Dates

Start Date
2009
End Date
2011
Release Date
2009

Summary

To develop effective adaptive management plans, conservation and natural resource managers need to know how climate change will affect the species and ecosystems they manage. This project provides managers with information about potential climate change effects on species and managed areas in the Pacific Northwest. We evaluated projected changes in climate, vegetation, and species distributions through the year 2099 and assessed the potential impacts of these changes on key species and managed lands. We worked with conservation and natural resource managers to incorporate the results of this study into state, federal, and non-governmental organization (NGO) management plans. The projected changes in climate, vegetation, and species [...]

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NCCW-2009-3_Elk_HohRainForest_OlympicNP_AlanCressler.jpg
“Elk, Hoh Rain Forest, Olympic National Park - Credit: Alan Cressler”
thumbnail 381.77 KB image/jpeg
NCCW-2009-3_HohRiver_OlympicNP_AlanCressler.jpg
“Hoh River, Olympic National Park - Credit: Alan Cressler”
thumbnail 254.68 KB image/jpeg
NCCW-2009-3_MtRainierNP_AlanCressler.jpg
“Mount Rainier National Park - Credit: Alan Cressler”
thumbnail 280.64 KB image/jpeg
NCCW-2009-3_OlympicNP_AlanCressler.jpg
“Olympic National Park - Credit: Alan Cressler”
thumbnail 301.19 KB image/jpeg

Material Request Instructions

The project has six specific objectives:

(1) Downscaling future climate simulations from 6 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) to high spatial resolution grids (e.g., 1-km) of the Pacific Northwest. Monthly data are being developed extending through the year 2099. Bioclimatic variables(e.g., growing degree days) will be calculated from the downscaled climate data.

(2) Simulating potential future vegetation changes using dynamic vegetation models. These simulations will provide an estimate of potential future habitat change.

(3) Modeling potential shifts in the distributions of 12 or more focal animal species. These species will be chosen in discussions with land managers from the region.

(4) Assessing the vulnerabilities of species and managed lands to future climate change. This assessment will be based on the projected changes in climate, vegetation, and species distributions as well as on inherent species and ecosystem sensitivities to climate change.

(5) Summarizing the uncertainties in the simulated climate, vegetation, and species distribution changes.

(6) Working in collaboration with managers to incorporate the research results into conservation and natural resource management plans.

Project Extension

projectStatusCompleted

Hoh River, Olympic National Park - Credit: Alan Cressler
Hoh River, Olympic National Park - Credit: Alan Cressler

Map

Spatial Services

ScienceBase WMS

Communities

  • National CASC
  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers

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