SRLCC ArcGIS Map Package: projected precipitation and change in precipitation

This ArcGIS map package contains climate data layers selected from The Nature Conservancy's Climate Wizard ¹, a user-friendly viewer and data portal that provides access to Maurer et al.'s 2007 downscaled climate data and PRISM climate data. The data were downloaded from the custom application of the website (climatewizardcustom.org), which allows users to upload a shapefile and concentrate on an area of interest (in this case, the footprint of the SRLCC).

The map package displays data sets for the A2 emissions scenario. Emission scenarios are possibilities for future conditions based on greenhouse gas emissions, land use and other environmental factors ². The A2 scenario was selected from the three emissions scenarios in the climate wizard (A2, A1B and B1) based on reports that observed rates of emissions growth are on track with the top end of the scenario range ³.

There are 13 layers in the map package. One shows mean annual precipitation from 1961-1990 (representing current conditions), 6 layers show mean annual precipitation projections for two future time periods (2040-2069 and 2070-2099) and 6 layers show the projected change in precipitation between current and the future time periods.

The climate wizard tool can display projections produced by 16 different General Circulation Models (GCMs) as well as ensembles of all 16. Included here are median ensembles of the GCMs (50% of GCMs projections are higher and 50% are lower), and, in order to show variation between models, the highest and lowest individual GCM projections.

GCM projections often conflict on the direction of the trend in precipitation (whether it will increase or decrease in the future) and this can result in a high level of uncertainty. Four additional layers were added to map to show where there is a high level of GCM agreement on trend direction. These layers were created based on methods described in the Climate Wizard documentation ¹. The ensemble method in the Climate Wizard tool is quantile rank approach that maps out 0%, 20%, 40% 50%, 60% 80% and 100% ensembles. For values displayed in an 80% ensemble map: 80% of the GCMs predict values at or below these values. Areas of the 80% change in precipitation map that showed negative values were converted into a new layer: “Area where at least 80% of GCMs agree on precipitation decrease”. Similarly, areas of the 20% change in precipitation map that showed positive values were converted into a new layer: “Area where at least 80% of GCMs agree on precipitation increase".

The ecoregion layer depicts Omernik's level III ecoregions ⁴.

1. Girvetz, E. H., Zganjar, C., Raber, G. T., Maurer, E. P., Kareiva, P., and Lawler, J. J.: Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool, PLoS ONE, 4, e8320, 2009.
Article available at: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0008320
For official documentation, see http://www.climatewizard.org/documentation.html

From www.climatewizard.org:

" ClimateWizard enables technical and non-technical audiences alike to access leading climate change information and visualize the impacts anywhere on Earth. The first generation of this web-based program allows the user to choose a state or country and both assess how climate has changed over time and to project what future changes are predicted to occur in a given area. ClimateWizard represents the first time ever the full range of climate history and impacts for a landscape have been brought together in a user-friendly format.

Partners and Data Developers
The data and information presented in this web site are subject to the conditions stated below. Data may be freely reproduced and distributed for non-commercial purposes. When referring to the data, the source must be clearly and prominently stated, and include at a minimum, our name, URL. Use the citations for appropriate data in the manner below:

United States (Lower 48 and Conterminous) past 50 years (1951-2006)
(4km resolution)
"PRISM Group, Oregon State University, created 4 Feb 2007." The PRISM Group, Oregon State University retains rights to ownership of the data and information.
http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/

United States (Lower 48 and Conterminous) 2050 mid century (2040-2069), 2100 end century (2070-2099)
(12km resolution)
Base climate projections downscaled by Maurer, et al. (2007).
To lean more please read the article in EOS at   http://www.agu.org/eos_elec/2007/47-504.html
Maurer, E. P., L. Brekke, T. Pruitt, and P. B. Duffy (2007), Fine-resolution climate projections enhance regional climate change impact studies, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(47), 504
We also acknowledge the following groups for providing the WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset available: Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, The WCRP's Working Group on Coupled Modeling Office of Science, US Department of Energy."

2. Link to Special Report on Emissions Scenarios:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf

3. G.P. Peters, R.M. Andrew, T. Boden, J.G. Canadell, P. Ciais, C. Le Quéré, G. Marland, M.R. Raupach und C. Wilson. The mitigation challenge to stay below two degrees. Nature Climate Change advance online publication, DOI:10.1038/nclimate1783, 2012

4. US Environmental Protection Agency, 20111222, Level III Ecoregions of the Conterminous United States: U.S. EPA Office of Research & Development (ORD) - National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL) , Corvallis, OR. Available for download at: http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/ecoregions/na_eco.htm#Level%20III

Climate_Wizard_Data_A2_Emissions_Scenario_Precipitation.mpk		1.16 MB	application/zip
Preview_Image_Precip.gif		110.42 KB	image/gif

SRLCC ArcGIS Map Package: projected precipitation and change in precipitation

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