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Future density (birds per hectare) model of Brown Creeper: Community Climate System Model (CCSM)


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Future density (birds per hectare) model of Brown Creeper (Certhia americana) using a Boosted Regression Tree model (Hastie & Tibshirani 2000) informed by breeding season avian point count data, modeled vegetation types, and climate data from the Weather Research Forecasting Grell Model (WRFG) with boundary conditions driven by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) averaged for the years 2041-2070 and available from


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Information on the potential effects of climate change on bird communities can help guide effective conservation and inform land management decisions. Species projections can be used to identify species that may be sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. Species projections can also be used to examine future changes in bird species richness and composition. These models were created under a grant from the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NPLCC) and will be used within that region to help identify areas of current and future conservation priority as well as to reveal opportunities for resource managers to collaborate in their climate adaptation strategies.


  • LC MAP - Landscape Conservation Management and Analysis Portal
  • North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative



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