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Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach

Dates

Year
2005

Citation

Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, Pierru, Axel, and Smeers, Yves, 2005, Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach: Energy Policy, v. 38, iss. 9, p. 5108-5122.

Summary

The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO2 emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO2 price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO2 policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO2 emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a "hard cap" or a "soft cap". Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories--with two branches after 2020--for prices [...]

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  • Western Energy Citation Clearinghouse

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Additional Information

Identifiers

Type Scheme Key
DOI WECC []
ISSN WECC 0301-4215

Citation Extension

citationTypeJournal Article
journalEnergy Policy
parts
typePages
value5108-5122
typeVolume
value38
typeIssue
value9

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