WWF and partners will assess the probability of grasslands being converted to cropland in the Northern Great Plains by analyzing land characteristics (e.g. soil properties conducive to specific crops), climate variables (e.g. rainfall, temperature before and during the growing season) associated with different land uses. The conversion risk analysis will produce a statistical model that explains which factors drive grassland conversion and can predict grassland conversion risk across the NGP- at five and ten years from present. Likely impacts from climate change on suitability of lands for different crops will be incorporated by simulating conversion risks unde alternative future climate scenarios at 20 and 40 years in the future using downscaled global circulation model output. Concurrently, WWF will conduct agronomic research on camelina and switchgrasss, crops for which biofuels markets exist, to determine which lands are most likely to be converted to these crops.
