Predicting Effects of Climate Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in the Crown of the Continent: Combining Vulnerability Assessments, Landscape Connectivity, and Modeling for Conservation and Adaptation
Develop vulnerability assessments for stream macroinvertebrates in the Transboundary Flathead and WGIPP system, which will produce spatially-etrueplicit distribution and abundance models coupled with climate projections and response variables of aquatic biota at multiple trophic levels in the food web; Apply new and etrueisting techniques for combining downscaled, regionalized climate models to spatially etrueplicit habitat data. These will be coupled to population genetic data to monitor and predict effects of climate change on connectivity, gene flow, and persistence for bull trout, westslope cutthroat trout, and rare macroinvertebrate populations; Assess the physiological thresholds (e.g., temperature tolerances) and responses of aquatic organisms (fish and key-indicator macroinvertebrates) using controlled laboratory etrueperiments; Develop detailed, spatially etrueplicit hydrogeomorphic, thermal and habitat models of critical stream and riparian habitats of the North Fork river corridor using airborne remote sensing tools. These products, from headwater tributaries to the valley-bottom corridor and floodplains where much of the connectivity and response to variation in thermal and hydrologic regimes will be played out, will couple directly to the vulnerability assessments of Objective 1, the connectivity models of Objective 2 and the thermal and flow tolerance assessments of Objective 3.
Project Extension
parts
type
Objectives
value
Develop vulnerability assessments for stream macroinvertebrates in the Transboundary Flathead and WGIPP system, which will produce spatially-explicit distribution and abundance models coupled with climate projections and response variables of aquatic biota at multiple trophic levels in the food web; Apply new and existing techniques for combining downscaled, regionalized climate models to spatially explicit habitat data. These will be coupled to population genetic data to monitor and predict effects of climate change on connectivity, gene flow, and persistence for bull trout, westslope cutthroat trout, and rare macroinvertebrate populations; Assess the physiological thresholds (e.g., temperature tolerances) and responses of aquatic organisms (fish and key-indicator macroinvertebrates) using controlled laboratory experiments; Develop detailed, spatially explicit hydrogeomorphic, thermal and habitat models of critical stream and riparian habitats of the North Fork river corridor using airborne remote sensing tools. These products, from headwater tributaries to the valley-bottom corridor and floodplains where much of the connectivity and response to variation in thermal and hydrologic regimes will be played out, will couple directly to the vulnerability assessments of Objective 1, the connectivity models of Objective 2 and the thermal and flow tolerance assessments of Objective 3.
projectProducts
productDescription
High resolution climate data sets produced by our regional climate models (2011); High resolution (<1m) habitat classification and analysis of selected and representative stream reaches, from alpine to valley floor) (2012–14); Fine scale species distribution modeling with supportive data with scenarios for agency conservation strategies and conservation efforts (2011); Physiological responses of aquatic organisms to changes in flow and temperature (2011–14); Data sharing in the GNLCC [Data will be made available to resource managers dealing with aquatic systems, including the Crown Managers Partnership, USGS, FWS, USFS, BLM, state management agencies, and private organizations (e.g., Trout Unlimited)] (2011–14); Species-specific decision support tools (Bayes nets) will be made available from the USGS fish-climate project that will incorporate our results. These will be portable, and designed to permit fish managers to quickly and efficiently assess extinction risk and the outcome of management actions. (2012); Workshops to present the results and decision support tools to managers and provide hands-on training (2012–14); Multiple peer reviewed publication(s) of the study (2011–14)
status
Expected
projectStatus
In Progress
Communities
Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative
LC MAP - Landscape Conservation Management and Analysis Portal