The need to improve fire weather predictions for the southern Great Plains has grown in recent years, following a number of extreme fire events. While on-the-ground conditions that promote fire development in the region are still not well understood, research suggests that fire-friendly conditions are determined by more than just precipitation amounts or wind speeds. They are also influenced by soil characteristics such as moisture content, temperature, and human use. Therefore, fire weather forecast predictions could be improved by developing a better understanding of the relationship between soil characteristics and fire occurrence.
With a hotter and drier future unfolding in the southern Great Plains, the time is now to consider how soil moisture dynamics are expected to change and what influence, if any, this will have on fire potential. This project aimed to fine-tune fire weather forecast predictions using soil temperature and soil moisture for a variety of managed and unmanaged systems in West Texas and Oklahoma. Accounting for these conditions improves our understanding of what regions and time periods are and will be favorable to fire conditions. This information is meant to give managers a more complete picture of fire risk, thus helping to inform fire prevention, crop production, and conservation decisions across the region.
