The major water quality impairment in the midwest United States is sediment eroded from agricultural lands. Yet, few understand the spatial and temporal variability of erosion, or soil erosion dynamics, in relation to precipitation, topography, land management, and severe events. The objectives of this paper are to (1) develop a methodology for estimating long-term spatial soil erosion and water runoff losses and (2) explore issues in applying an established physical-based process model, Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP), to a large area by establishing a prototype system for the state of Iowa. This study for the first time provides a comparison of the model predictions against long-term measurements of the sediment delivery [...]