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Metrics for Assessing Earthquake Hazard Map Performance

Assessing hazard map performance

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Seth Stein, Edward Brooks, and Bruce D. Spencer, 2014, Metrics for Assessing Earthquake Hazard Map Performance: p. 1-20.

Summary

Recent large earthquakes that did great damage in areas predicted to be relatively safe illustrate the importance of criteria to assess how well earthquake hazard maps used to develop codes for earthquake-resistant construction are actually performing. At present, there is no agreed way of assessing how well a map performed and thus whether one map performed better than another. The metric implicit in current maps, that during the chosen time interval the predicted ground motion will be exceeded only at a specific fraction of the sites, is useful but permits maps to be nominally successful although they significantly underpredict or overpredict shaking, or to be nominally unsuccessful but do well in terms of predicting shaking. We [...]

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  • John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis

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noteStein, S., Brooks, E., and Spencer, B. (2014). Metrics for Assessing Earthquake Hazard Map Performance. Article published online, 1-20. Website: http://www.earth.northwestern.edu/people/seth/Texts/metrics.pdf
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