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Influences of Climate Change, Climate Variability, and Drought on Human Communities and Ecosystems in Hawaiʻi

Climate Change, Variability and Drought - Dynamics and Influences on Ecosystems and Society in Hawaiʻi

Dates

Start Date
2016-03-10
End Date
2019-02-28
Release Date
2015

Summary

Over the past century, Hawaiʻi has experienced a pronounced decline in precipitation and stream flow and a number of severe droughts. These changes can have wide-reaching implications, affecting the water supply, native vegetation and wildlife, wildfire patterns, and the spread of invasive species. Several climate-related factors are influencing Hawaiˈi’s landscapes and contributing to these changes. These include climate change, climate variability, and drought (referred to collectively as CCVD). Climate variability describes how the climate fluctuates on a yearly basis around average values, while climate change describes patterns of long-term continuous change in the average. While it is understood that CCVD will exert a growing [...]

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SouthKohalaDistrict_HI_AlanCressler.jpg
“South Kohala District, Hawaii - Credit: Alan Cressler”
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Purpose

Climate change, climate variability and episodic drought (CCVD) will exert a growing influence on Hawaii’s landscapes, watersheds, and near shore areas. Resulting changes will be magnified through interactions among changing climate, an expanding non-native and invasive plant species cover, especially fire prone species, and accelerating spread and enhanced intensity of novel fire regimes, ultimately shifting biome and causing extinctions. We know from past records and occurrences, the interactive effects of CCVD, invasion and fire are self-reinforcing stressors. Initial modeling highlights the potential for continued changes to the climate system in the coming century, but for the Hawaiian Islands, the magnitude and spatial distributions of past CCVD are poorly quantified. As a result, how CCVD will impact local climate, the spread of non-native invasive species, future fire danger, and their interactions is unknown, presenting a complex and intensely interconnected “wicked” problem for Hawaii land managers. In this project, the research team will build on a number of recently developed products and tools to synthesize/develop high resolution understanding of past CCVD, especially historical trajectories, as well as initial assessment of trends emerging from downscaled current and future drought. We will use this information to assess significance of CCVD to various sectors, with a more detailed assessment of how CCVD related to past fire weather, fuel moisture, and fire danger indices (FDIs, which combine fuels, weather, and fuel moisture).

Project Extension

projectStatusCompleted

Budget Extension

annualBudgets
year2016
totalFunds100000.0
parts
typeAward Type
valueInteragency Agreement
typeAward Number
valueG16PG00037
totalFunds100000.0

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