Modeling the timber supply impact of introducing weevil-resistant spruce in British Columbia with cellular automata

Assessing the impacts of cumulative, non-lethal damages to forests poses a particular challenge to forest management planning since cumulative merchantable volume losses are not known until the time of harvest. This paper introduces a model that scales stand-level processes to their large-scale implications by combining elements of growth and yield modeling, insect infestation modeling, and large-scale spatial harvest simulation. The model is described and tested using the proposed large-scale introduction of weevil-resistant spruce in British Columbia, Canada as a case study. While spruce weevil damages were found to be significant, only a relatively small percentage of losses can be avoided by planting resistant stock. The model [...]