Final Report: Impacts of Climate Change on Water Flows in the Red River Basin
Dates
Date Reported
2016-02-01
Citation
Final Report: Impacts of Climate Change on Water Flows in the Red River Basin: .
Summary
In 2015, the Red River Basin experienced the tail end of a severe drought followed by exceptional flooding, both of which cause impacts to industry, agriculture, tourism and the environment. Scientists, water managers and other stakeholders are interested in knowing what is in store for the future of the Red River Basin. Researchers at the University of Oklahoma and the Choctaw and Chickasaw Nations developed projections of future hydrology for the Red River Basin under possible future climate conditions. A methodology was developed for using current state of the art Global Climate Models (GCM) and applying them on a scale suitable for hydrologic models, ultimately making the information useful to water managers and interested stakeholders. [...]
Summary
In 2015, the Red River Basin experienced the tail end of a severe drought followed by exceptional flooding, both of which cause impacts to industry, agriculture, tourism and the environment. Scientists, water managers and other stakeholders are interested in knowing what is in store for the future of the Red River Basin. Researchers at the University of Oklahoma and the Choctaw and Chickasaw Nations developed projections of future hydrology for the Red River Basin under possible future climate conditions. A methodology was developed for using current state of the art Global Climate Models (GCM) and applying them on a scale suitable for hydrologic models, ultimately making the information useful to water managers and interested stakeholders. We conclude that there are considerable differences between the various models generated and that many other sources of uncertainty exist when using that information for water management decisions. However, the following general conclusions can be made: (1) Precipitation: Most models predict slightly less precipitation in the western portions of the basin and more in the east in the future. This is particularly true for the MPI-ESM-LR GCM, however it is not the case for all simulations and making a generalized statement about future precipitation would be inadvisable. Increased evaporation somewhat negates this effect when analyzing future flows; (2) Temperature: It will be warmer in the future, with the magnitude of the temperature increase largely dictated by the amount of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere in the future. In fact, under the worst case scenarios, average temperatures could increase by as much as 6 o C (11 o F). Daily minimum temperatures are expected to increase more than daily maximum; (3) Hydrology: While some of the models predict similar or more streamflow in the future, especially in the eastern portions of the Red River Basin, this is not a universal conclusion. In fact some of the models under higher emission scenarios predict significantly less flow in the western reaches in the future. There is a strong possibility that future droughts will be longer and deeper across the entire basin, while floods may be more intense.
