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Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise

Dates

Year
2014

Citation

Stralberg, Diana, Matsuoka, Steven M., Hamann, Andreas, Bayne, Erin M., Sólymos, Péter, Schmiegelow, Fiona, Wang, Xianli, Cumming, Steve G., and Song, Samantha J., 2014, Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise: Ecological Applications.

Summary

For climate-change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive dataset of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique locations) and 4-km climate, land-use and topographic data. For projected changes in abundance, we calculated signal-to-noise ratios, and examined variance components related to choice of global climate model (GCM) and two sources of species distribution [...]

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Provenance

Data source
File Processing
File Process
Type
End Note
Reference Item
3397 record import test
Reference File
NWBLCC-20160406.xml

Additional Information

Identifiers

Type Scheme Key
DOI http://sciencebase.gov/vocab/identifierScheme 10.1890/13-2289.1; 02 10.1890/13-2289.1
ISSN http://sciencebase.gov/vocab/identifierScheme 1051-0761

Citation Extension

journalEcological Applications
parts
typeNotes
value8833
citationTypeJournal Article

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