The Importance of Natural Variability in Lake Areas on the Detection of Permafrost Degradation: A Case Study in the Yukon Flats, Alaska

Long-term lake area change has previously been measured to detect the temporal rate and spatial extent of permafrost degradation. However, the natural intra- and interannual variability of lake areas has not been considered explicitly and quantitatively, which can substantially interfere with the detection of long-term lake area change associated with permafrost degradation. In order to better understand the natural background variability of lake areas, we used Landsat 7 images obtained on 11 dates from 1999 to 2002 to quantify the intra- and interannual lake area variability for a 4224 km2 study area within the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Total lake areas ranged from 179 km2 (22 August 1999) to 326 km2 (6 June 2000). Even within a single [...]