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  5. Identifying Resilient Headwater Streams to Mitigate Impacts of Future Drought in the Northwest

Identifying Resilient Headwater Streams to Mitigate Impacts of Future Drought in the Northwest

Application of the Headwaters Intermittency Prediction (HIP) tool to characterize watershed resiliency and to mitigate ecological drought impacts on Pacific Northwest aquatic resources.
Principal Investigator
Kyle Blasch

Dates

Start Date
2016-06-29
End Date
2017-12-29
Release Date
2016

Summary

Streams are classified as perennial (flowing uninterrupted, year-round) or intermittent (flowing part of the year) or ephemeral (flowing only during rainfall events). The classifications of “streamflow permanence” were primarily established in the middle 20th century and are often outdated and inaccurate today if they were not adjusted for changes in land use, wildfires, or climate.Understanding where streams are perennial is important for a variety of reasons. For example, perennial streams receive special regulatory protections under a variety of statutes, and provide important habitat for fish, wildlife, and other species. To predict the likelihood that streams are perennial, we compiled nearly 25,000 observations of wet/dry conditions [...]

Child Items (3)

Contacts

Principal Investigator :
Kyle Blasch
Co-Investigator :
Roy Sando, Jason Dunham
Funding Agency :
Northwest CSC
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

Attached Files

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UpperWhitehorseCreek_OR2_JasonDunham_USGS.JPG
“Upper Whitehorse Creek, Oregon - Credit: Jason Dunham” 		thumbnail 5.17 MB image/jpeg

Purpose

The project objective was to provide land managers with the ability to identify headwater streams resilient to drought conditions enabling them to focus their limited rehabilitation and conservation resources on watersheds necessary to support populations of threatened aquatic species. Three major scientific achievements were completed during this project including 1) a public domain tool that identifies the dynamic nature of perennial and non-perennial streams within the Pacific Northwest; 2) a catalog of approximately 24,000 streamflow permanence observations (1977- 2016) that can be used to support watershed and ecosystems models; and, 3) the advancement of low-cost, widely useable streamflow estimation techniques that can be used when conventional stream gaging methods are not feasible. To address the dynamic nature of perennial and non-perennial streamflow in the region, this project developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model. PROSPER is a geospatial empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest Region. The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset stream grid. Understanding of streamflow in montane watersheds on regional scales is often incomplete due to a lack of data for smaller order streams that link precipitation and snowmelt processes to main stem stream discharge. To this end, four current velocity estimation methods were evaluated in a laboratory flume: the surface float, rising body, velocity rod, and rising air bubble methods. The methods were tested under a range of stream velocities, cross sectional depths, and streambed substrates. The resulting measurements provide estimates of precision and bias of the each method, as well as method-specific insight and calibration formulas.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueThe project objective was to provide land managers with the ability to identify headwater streams resilient to drought conditions enabling them to focus their limited rehabilitation and conservation resources on watersheds necessary to support populations of threatened aquatic species. Three major scientific achievements were completed during this project including 1) a public domain tool that identifies the dynamic nature of perennial and non-perennial streams within the Pacific Northwest; 2) a catalog of approximately 24,000 streamflow permanence observations (1977- 2016) that can be used to support watershed and ecosystems models; and, 3) the advancement of low-cost, widely useable streamflow estimation techniques that can be used when conventional stream gaging methods are not feasible. To address the dynamic nature of perennial and non-perennial streamflow in the region, we developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model. PROSPER is a geospatial empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest Region. The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset stream grid. Predictions will soon be publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform. Total annual precipitation and percent forest cover were consistently the most important predictor variables among global and subregional models, which had error rates between 17 and 22 percent. Results suggest that the PROSPER model is a useful tool for identifying areas that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for management efforts that target protecting critical reaches. Importantly, PROSPER’s successful predictive performance can be improved with new datasets of streamflow underscoring the importance of field observations. Understanding of streamflow in montane watersheds on regional scales is often incomplete due to a lack of data for smaller order streams that link precipitation and snowmelt processes to main stem stream discharge. This data deficiency is attributed to the prohibitive cost of conventional streamflow methods and the remote location of many small streams. Expedient and low-cost streamflow estimation procedures used by resource professionals or citizen scientists may help fill this current data gap. To this end, four current velocity estimation methods were evaluated in a laboratory flume: the surface float, rising body, velocity rod, and rising air bubble methods. The methods were tested under a range of stream velocities, cross sectional depths, and streambed substrates. The resulting measurements provide estimates of precision and bias of the each method, as well as method-specific insight and calibration formulas. The velocity rod provided the highest precision at high velocities and the rising bubble at low velocity. However, the reliance on a velocity ratio for each of these methods can generate inaccuracy in their results. The rising body is challenging and of lower precision, but provides low bias measurements. The air bubble is considered impractical for the potential user group of these methods.
projectStatusCompleted

Upper Whitehorse Creek, Oregon - Credit: Jason Dunham
Upper Whitehorse Creek, Oregon - Credit: Jason Dunham

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Drought, Fire and Extreme Weather
Water, Coasts and Ice
Science Tools for Managers
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RegistrationUUID NCCWSC f3773983-e773-45b4-8065-a14c87b2f42a
StampID NCCWSC NW16-BK0563

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