Final Report: 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa
Dates
Date Received
2016-10-01
Citation
Project Final Report - 21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa: .
Summary
This final report is for the Pacific Islands-funded project "21st Century High-Resolution Climate Projections for Guam and American Samoa". We provide the projected fine-resolution future climate changes over Guam and American Samoa by the late 21st century (2080-2099) with both a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and a medium emission scenario (RCP4.5). We show that the surface air temperature (SAT) over Guam is likely to increase by 1.5 – 2.0 °C for RCP4.5 and by 3.0 – 3.5 °C for RCP8.5, while the projected SAT increases over American Samoa are slightly smaller. The projected annual mean future rainfall changes for Guam are not statistically significant in any location in either the RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenarios. However, American [...]
We provide the projected fine-resolution future climate changes over Guam and American Samoa by the late 21st century (2080-2099) with both a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and a medium emission scenario (RCP4.5). We show that the surface air temperature (SAT) over Guam is likely to increase by 1.5 – 2.0 °C for RCP4.5 and by 3.0 – 3.5 °C for RCP8.5, while the projected SAT increases over American Samoa are slightly smaller. The projected annual mean future rainfall changes for Guam are not statistically significant in any location in either the RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenarios. However, American Samoa is projected to be wetter with the late 21st century mean rainfall increasing by ~20-25% at most locations. The frequency of weak tropical cyclones (TCs) will significantly decrease within 500 km around Guam, while that of strong TCs will increase. Similar trend is projected for American Samoa for RCP4.5, but both weak and strong TCs are likely to decrease significantly for RCP8.5.
