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Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

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Dietze M.C., A. Fox, J.Betancourt, M.Hooten, C.Jarnevich, T. Keitt, M. A. Kenney, C. Laney, L. Larsen, H.W. Loescher, C.Lunch, B.Pijanowski, J.T. Randerson, E.Read, A.Tredennick, K.C. Weathers, E. P. White. 2017. Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges. NEON Workshop Report. DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.4715317

Summary

A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These [...]

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Timelines that (A) summarizing major data streams that can be used for ecological forecasting; (B) timeline period descriptions; and (C) forms of modeling across time. Forecasting, hindcasting, backcasting, deep backcasting..JPG
“Figure 1 from report”
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  • John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis

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DOI https://www.sciencebase.gov/vocab/category/item/identifier 10.6084/m9.figshare.4715317

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noteDietze M.C., A. Fox, J.Betancourt, M.Hooten, C.Jarnevich, T. Keitt, M. A. Kenney, C. Laney, L. Larsen, H.W. Loescher, C.Lunch, B.Pijanowski, J.T. Randerson, E.Read, A.Tredennick, K.C. Weathers, E. P. White. 2017. Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges. NEON Workshop Report. DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.4715317

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