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Multimodel Ensemble Sea Level Forecasts for Tropical Pacific Islands

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Matthew J. Widlansky, John J. Marra, Md. Rashed Chowdhury, Scott A. Stephens, Elaine R. Miles, Nicolas Fauchereau, Claire M. Spillman, Grant Smith, Grant Beard, and Judith Wells, Multimodel Ensemble Sea Level Forecasts for Tropical Pacific Islands: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.

Summary

Abstract (from http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0284.1): Sea level anomaly extremes impact tropical Pacific Ocean islands, often with too little warning to mitigate risks. With El Niño, such as the strong 2015/16 event, comes weaker trade winds and mean sea level drops exceeding 30 cm in the western Pacific that expose shallow-water ecosystems at low tides. Nearly opposite climate conditions accompany La Niña events, which cause sea level high stands (10–20 cm) and result in more frequent tide- and storm-related inundations that threaten coastlines. In the past, these effects have been exacerbated by decadal sea level variability, as well as continuing global sea level rise. Climate models, which are increasingly [...]

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Communities

  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • Pacific Islands CASC

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Water, Coasts and Ice
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journalJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
parts
typedoi
value10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0284.1

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