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  5. Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska

Improving Characterizations of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska

Characterization of Future Wildfire Risk in Alaska Using Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration Modeling
Principal Investigator
Gregory McCabe

Dates

Start Date
2018-10-15
End Date
2019-09-30
Release Date
2017

Summary

In Alaska, recent research has identified particular areas of the state where both a lack of soil moisture and warming temperatures increase the likelihood of wildfire. While this is an important finding, this previous research did not take into account the important role that melting snow, ice, and frozen ground (permafrost) play in replenshing soil moisture in the spring and summer months. This project will address this gap in the characterization of fire risk using the newly developed monthly water balance model (MWBM). The MWBM takes into account rain, snow, snowmelt, glacier ice melt, and the permafrost layer to better calculate soil moisture replenishment and the amount of moisture that is lost to the atmosphere (evapotranspiration). [...]

Child Items (3)

Contacts

Principal Investigator :
Gregory McCabe
Funding Agency :
Alaska CSC
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

Attached Files

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Fire_AK_NPS.jpg
“Fire in Alaska - Credit: NPS” 		thumbnail 201.39 KB image/jpeg

Purpose

Recent research into Alaska’s wildfire regimes identified the ecoregions where a combination of moisture deficit and elevated temperatures are linked to increased wildfire vulnerability (Young et al., 2016). In the Young et al. study, moisture deficit is represented by total precipitation minus total potential evapotranspiration during a given month or year; however, this approach does not reflect the storage of precipitation in snowpack during half the year and the widespread replenishment of soil moisture that occurs in the spring as snow and ice melt. By accounting for the delayed release of winter precipitation as melt water, we will refine estimates of moisture deficit in Alaska. The USGS Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM) is a conceptual hydrologic model used for decades to perform hydrologic research. In recent research funded by the Alaska Climate Science Center, the MWBM was enhanced to simulate glaciers and their contributions to streamflow. Additional enhancements added to the MWBM include improved representations of melt rates, sublimation, the variable permafrost active layer, and surface depressions. We will apply the new MWBM throughout Alaska to refine estimates of moisture deficit and wildfire vulnerability. By improving understanding of climate impacts on fire regimes in Alaska, this proposal directly addresses a high priority research need identified by the Alaska Fire Science Consortium. Close collaboration with Alaska’s five Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC) will ensure alignment of the proposed research with LCC priorities and effective dissemination of results. Long term partnerships with local resource managers, watershed coalitions, and other local stakeholders will be encouraged through two stakeholder meetings in Alaska and regular communication. Desired outcomes of this 12-month project include determination of where, and when, wildfire vulnerability may change in the future and the effective transfer of research findings to local stakeholders and the scientific community.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueRecent research into Alaska’s wildfire regimes identified the ecoregions where a combination of moisture deficit and elevated temperatures are linked to increased wildfire vulnerability (Young et al., 2016). In the Young et al. study, moisture deficit is represented by total precipitation minus total potential evapotranspiration during a given month or year; however, this approach does not reflect the storage of precipitation in snowpack during half the year and the widespread replenishment of soil moisture that occurs in the spring as snow and ice melt. By accounting for the delayed release of winter precipitation as melt water, we will refine estimates of moisture deficit in Alaska. The USGS Monthly Water Balance Model (MWBM) is a conceptual hydrologic model used for decades to perform hydrologic research. In recent research funded by the Alaska Climate Science Center, the MWBM was enhanced to simulate glaciers and their contributions to streamflow. Additional enhancements added to the MWBM include improved representations of melt rates, sublimation, the variable permafrost active layer, and surface depressions. We will apply the new MWBM throughout Alaska to refine estimates of moisture deficit and wildfire vulnerability. By improving understanding of climate impacts on fire regimes in Alaska, this proposal directly addresses a high priority research need identified by the Alaska Fire Science Consortium. Close collaboration with Alaska’s five Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC) will ensure alignment of the proposed research with LCC priorities and effective dissemination of results. Long term partnerships with local resource managers, watershed coalitions, and other local stakeholders will be encouraged through two stakeholder meetings in Alaska and regular communication. Desired outcomes of this 12-month project include determination of where, and when, wildfire vulnerability may change in the future and the effective transfer of research findings to local stakeholders and the scientific community.
projectStatusIn Progress

Fire in Alaska - Credit: NPS
Fire in Alaska - Credit: NPS

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Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC f11c46f5-bfec-497c-ba26-489d34a4d1dc
StampID NCCWSC AK17-MG1038

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