Assessing Climate Impacts and Adaptation for Biodiversity and Natural Resources in San Diego County

Principal Investigator

Daniel Cayan

Start Date

2017-09-01

End Date

2018-08-31

Release Date

2017

The mediterranean ecosystems of southern California are some of the most ecologically diverse systems. The diversity of plants and animals, as well as high rates of endemism, make the area a biodiversity hotspot. San Diego County's complex topography and highly variable precipitation and other climatic factors play an important role in determining the resident biological palette. Climate change would aggravate parts of the region's already challenging climate and add to other stressors. San Diego has a major metropolitan area, and is burdened by extensive fragmentation from roadways and suburban-rural development. Within this complex, San Diego County still hosts expanses of native and preserved habitats where management and conservation action could be greatly enhanced through science-based assessments and planning for climate change and variability. The objective of this project is to assess the natural resources at risk from climate change and increased climate variability in San Diego’s diverse terrestrial ecosystems. To accomplish this, we have assembled a team of climatologists and ecologists in a unique collaboration. The team has outlined an approach to elucidate existing science and expose knowledge gaps for the San Diego region. Our collaborative group of ecologists and climatologists will describe the rich biodiversity of the region, the efforts that have been made to conserve open spaces and natural resources, and review the state of the science with respect to understanding potential climate impacts on the diverse environmental landscape in the San Diego region. The goal of this collaborative effort is to present a needed assessment of San Diego ecosystems and natural resources futures, which will take stock of the implications of climate change as well as other stressors. We aim to review how San Diego’s natural resources are at risk from climate change and co-occurring stressors. Our ultimate aim is to compile and present this assessment to help guide better stewardship and management of the unique ecosystems in the region. The final report from this effort will be presented as part of the 4th California Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment. In partnership with the Climate Science Alliance – South Coast, a unique collaboration of local ecologists and climatologists is conducting a review of the impacts of climate change on San Diego County’s terrestrial ecosystems. In this assessment, we will review the state of the science on the background natural climate variability and projected climatic changes, and describe the region’s unique diversity of ecosystems, habitats, plants, and animals. The assessment will include a review of the susceptibility of the region’s ecosystems to impacts from climate variability and relevant synergistic impacts of anthropogenic factors that may be exacerbated by a changing climate (e.g., urban growth, land use shifts, and fire regimes). We will explore the most regionally-relevant climate adaptation strategies that can be applied to buffer the effects of climate variability and provide several case-study examples of adaptation projects that have been successfully implemented in San Diego’s terrestrial ecosystems. We will also conduct a needs assessment to identify needed science efforts such as long-term monitoring, climate modeling and projections, and ecosystem modeling that may facilitate change detection, adaptive management, and risk planning for the region.

ScienceBase WMS

• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
• Southwest CASC