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A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

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Field, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M., Milner, K., Shaw, B., Dawson, T., Biasi, G., Parsons, T., Hardebeck, J., Michael, A., Weldon, R., Powers, P., Johnson, K., Zeng, Y., Bird, P., Felzer, K., van der Elst, N., Madden, C., Arrowsmith, R., Werner, M., Thatcher, W., & Jackson, D. (2017) “A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3).” Seismological Research Letters, July 12, 2017. doi:10.1785/0220170045.

Summary

ABSTRACT Probabilistic forecasting of earthquake‐producing fault ruptures informs all major decisions aimed at reducing seismic risk and improving earthquake resilience. Earthquake forecasting models rely on two scales of hazard evolution: long‐term (decades to centuries) probabilities of fault rupture, constrained by stress renewal statistics, and short‐term (hours to years) probabilities of distributed seismicity, constrained by earthquake‐clustering statistics. Comprehensive datasets on both hazard scales have been integrated into the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3). UCERF3 is the first model to provide self‐consistent rupture probabilities over forecasting intervals from less than an hour to more [...]

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The map shows the average number of M≥2.5 earthquakes nucleating in 0.02°×0.02° cells over a 7 day period immediately following the mainshock rupture.JPG
“The map shows the average number of M≥2.5 earthquakes nucleating in 0.02°×0.02° ”
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  • John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis

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DOI https://www.sciencebase.gov/vocab/category/item/identifier 10.1785/0220170045

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noteField, E. H., Jordan, T. H., Page, M., Milner, K., Shaw, B., Dawson, T., Biasi, G., Parsons, T., Hardebeck, J., Michael, A., Weldon, R., Powers, P., Johnson, K., Zeng, Y., Bird, P., Felzer, K., van der Elst, N., Madden, C., Arrowsmith, R., Werner, M., Thatcher, W., & Jackson, D. (2017) “A Synoptic View of the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3).” Seismological Research Letters, July 12, 2017. doi:10.1785/0220170045.

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