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Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality

Dates

Year
2015

Citation

Yue, X., Mickley, L. J., Logan, J. A., Hudman, R. C., Martin, M. V., and Yantosca, R. M., 2015, Impact of 2050 climate change on North American wildfire: consequences for ozone air quality: Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, v. 15, no. 17, p. 10033-10055.

Summary

We estimate future area burned in the Alaskan and Canadian forest by the mid-century (2046-2065) based on the simulated meteorology from 13 climate models under the A1B scenario. We develop ecoregion-dependent regressions using observed relationships between annual total area burned and a suite of meteorological variables and fire weather indices, and apply these regressions to the simulated meteorology. We find that for Alaska and western Canada, almost all models predict significant (p < 0.05) increases in area burned at the mid-century, with median values ranging from 150 to 390%, depending on the ecoregion. Such changes are attributed to the higher surface air temperatures and 500 hPa geopotential heights relative to present day, [...]

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  • LC MAP - Landscape Conservation Management and Analysis Portal
  • Northwest Boreal Landscape Conservation Cooperative

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Type Scheme Key
DOI http://sciencebase.gov/vocab/identifierScheme 10.5194/acp-15-10033-2015
ISSN http://sciencebase.gov/vocab/identifierScheme 16807316

Citation Extension

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valueYue, X. 1,2; Email Address: xuyueseas@gmail.com; Mickley, L. J. 1; Logan, J. A. 1; Hudman, R. C. 1,3; Martin, M. V. 4; Yantosca, R. M. 1; Affiliations: 1: School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA; 2: School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA; 3: Environmental Protection Agency, Region 9, San Francisco, California, USA; 4: Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK; Issue Info: 2015, Vol. 15 Issue 17, p10033; Thesaurus Term: CLIMATIC changes; Thesaurus Term: WILDFIRES; Thesaurus Term: ATMOSPHERIC ozone; Thesaurus Term: AIR quality; Thesaurus Term: FOREST fires; Subject: NORTH America; Number of Pages: 23p; Illustrations: 4 Charts, 4 Graphs, 7 Maps; Document Type: Article
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