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Impact of Drought on Southwestern Pronghorn Population Trends and Predicted Trajectories in the Southwest in the Face of Climate Change

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Citation

Gedir, J.V., and Cain III, J.W., 2018, Impact of Drought on Southwestern Pronghorn Population Trends and Predicted Trajectories in the Southwest in the Face of Climate Change: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/F76972HS.

Summary

Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these [...]

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Contacts

Author :
James W. Cain III, Jay V. Gedir
USGS Mission Area :
Land Resources
SDC Data Owner :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers

Purpose

The pronghorn population survey data were collected to estimate annual rate of population growth (λ) for subpopulations described herein. Historic climate data (precipitation and temperature) were compiled to determine climatic predictors of annual rates of pronghorn population growth. Projected climate data were compiled to use these predictive relationships to estimate future pronghorn subpopulation annual growth, which were in turn used to calculate projected pronghorn subpopulation sizes.

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  • National CASC
  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • USGS Data Release Products

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DOI https://www.sciencebase.gov/vocab/category/item/identifier doi:10.5066/F76972HS

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