Case Study: Integrated Scenarios and Outreach for Habitat Threat Assessments on California Rangelands
We developed six scenarios organized around our management question: How can we maintain viable ranchlands and their ecosystem services in light of future integrated threats? The scenarios represent alternative futures of climate/land use/hydrological change for the California Rangeland Conservation Coalition (Rangeland Coalition) focus area (the foothills around the Central Valley and most of the southern Inner Coast Range) based on (a) consistent storylines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)5 and (b) downscaled global climate models (GCMs) that represent future possible climates ranging from a hot/dry future to a warm/wet future. We are using these scenarios to quantify benefits of rangeland conservation—wildlife habitat, water supply, and carbon sequestration—and to conduct an economic analysis associated with changes in ecosystem services. Scenarios are translated to land owners and land managers through an expanded outreach campaign led by the Defenders of Wildlife.
