The YKD is also home to the largest subsistence-based economy in Alaska. Yet, the low-lying landscape mosaic characterizing the YKD is at risk of massive change associated with projected sea level rise (SLR), increasing storm frequency and severity and permafrost degradation due to future climate change. Therefore, to conserve ecosystem services associated with the botanical and faunal richness in the YKD, management strategies in the region should not only be based on current ecosystem conditions, but also incorporate projected changes in landscape composition. The goal of this project is to provide managers and people living in the YKD, an assessment of the vulnerability of the landscape to future change and to evaluate the consequences on people and waterbirds population. In order to meet this goal, our objectives are (1) to develop a geomorphic land cover map for the YKD; (2) to develop apredictive model of landcover change in response to SLR, increase in storm frequency and permafrost thaw; (3) to simulate the evolution of this landscape from 2000 to 2100 in response to future climate projections; and (4) to produce suitability and vulnerability maps of shorebird and waterfowl habitat in response to landscape change for 2050 and 2100.
