Rapid expansion of cropland threatens grassland ecosystems across western North America and broad-scaleplanning can be a catalyst motivating individuals and agencies to accelerate conservation. Sprague’s Pipit(Anthus spragueii) is an imperiled grassland songbird whose population has been declining rapidly in recent decades.Here, we present a strategic framework for conservation of pipits and their habitat in the northern GreatPlains.We modeled pipit distribution across its million-km2 breeding range in Canada and the U.S.We describefactors shaping distribution, delineate population cores and assess vulnerability to future grassland losses. Pipitsselected landscapes with a high proportion of continuous grassland within a relatively cool, moist climate. Sixtypercent of the global breeding population occurred in Canada and 63% of the U.S. population occurred inMontana. Populations were highly clumped, with 75% of birds within 30% of their range. Approximately 20% ofthe population occurred on protected lands and over half used lands thatwere unlikely to be cultivated given currenttechnologies. A quarter of pipits relied on remaining arable grasslands and potential population losses variedfrom 2–27% across scenarios. Most of the population (70%) was dependent on private lands, emphasizing theimportance of voluntary approaches that incentivize good stewardship. Our maps depicting core populationsand tillage risk enable partners to target conservation in landscapes where pipits will benefit most.
