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Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

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Citation

Valerie Steen, Helen R Sofaer, Susan K Skagen, Andrea Ray, and Barry Noon, 2017-09-20, Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?: Ecology and Evolution, v. 7, iss. 21, p. 8841-8851.

Summary

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, [...]

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Communities

  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • North Central CASC

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Other
Water, Coasts and Ice
Wildlife and Plants
Organization
NCCWSC Science Themes
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Input directly

Additional Information

Citation Extension

journalEcology and Evolution
parts
typeDOI
value10.1002/ece3.3403
typeVolume
value7
typeIssue
value21
typePages
value8841-8851

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