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Stand Age Projections 2050-2059


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LCC Network Data Steward(Point of Contact), Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative(administrator), 2015-11-02(lastUpdate), 2011-09-28(Publication), Stand Age Projections 2050-2059,,


Projected stand age for the years 2050-2059.


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Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperative(Data Owner)


Boreal ALFRESCO was developed to simulate the response of subarctic vegetation to a changing climate and disturbance regime. The model simulates four major subarctic/boreal ecosystem types: upland tundra, black spruce forest, white spruce forest, and deciduous forest. These ecosystem types represent a generalized classification of the complex vegetation mosaic characteristic of the circumpolar arctic and boreal zones of Alaska. ALFRESCO is a state-and-transition model of successional dynamics that explicitly represents the spatial processes of fire and vegetation recruitment across the landscape (Rupp et al. 2000a). ALFRESCO does not model fire behavior, but rather models the empirical relationship between growing-season climate (e.g., average temperature and total precipitation) and total annual area burned (i.e., the footprint of fire on the landscape). ALFRESCO also models the changes in vegetation flammability that occurs during succession through a flammability coefficient that changes with vegetation type and stand age (Chapin et al. 2003). The fire regime is simulated stochastically and is driven by climate, vegetation type, and time since last fire (Rupp et al. 2000a, 2007). ALFRESCO employs a cellular automaton approach, where an ignited pixel may spread to any of the eight surrounding pixels. ‘Ignition’ of a pixel is determined using a random number generator and as a function of the flammability value of that pixel. Fire ‘spread’ depends on the flammability of the receptor pixel and any effects of natural firebreaks including non-vegetated mountain slopes and large water bodies, which do not burn. SNAP climate data can be used as ALFRESCO inputs, thus creating projections of the impacts of changing climate on fire regime. Model development and research has been funded by a series of grants from the National Science Foundation and the Joint Fire Sciences Program.

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urn:uuid urn:uuid 12e64986-e81c-4bd7-a71f-278363b7059b

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