Final Report: Projecting Climate Change Effects on Aspen Distribution and Productivity in the Northern Great Basin and Central Rockies Using a Multi-model Approach
Dates
Release Date
2017-04-07
Citation
Final Report: Projecting Climate Change Effects on Aspen Distribution and Productivity in the Northern Great Basin and Central Rockies Using a Multi-model Approach: .
Summary
Aspen forests are “biological hotspots” in the western United States that support numerous wildlife species. Aspen ecosystems are also economically and socially important, providing high quality forage for livestock and game species (e.g. elk), as well as drawing tourists and improving local economies. Aspen ecosystems are in decline across portions of the western U.S., which is thought to be partly due to drought, and recent research suggests that future climate projected for the western U.S. will be even less capable of supporting aspen. We used different research methods to investigate key controls on aspen growth and survivability in the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Specifically, we projected the potential effects [...]
Summary
Aspen forests are “biological hotspots” in the western United States that support numerous wildlife species. Aspen ecosystems are also economically and socially important, providing high quality forage for livestock and game species (e.g. elk), as well as drawing tourists and improving local economies. Aspen ecosystems are in decline across portions of the western U.S., which is thought to be partly due to drought, and recent research suggests that future climate projected for the western U.S. will be even less capable of supporting aspen.
We used different research methods to investigate key controls on aspen growth and survivability in the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Specifically, we projected the potential effects of increasing temperature, altered moisture availability, and fire occurrence on aspen under climate change. Some of our results focused on the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in southwestern Idaho, and suggest that aspen productivity could decline in the future, especially at lower elevations, and particularly if more greenhouse gases are emitted. However, our results also suggest that aspen have some capacity to shift their timing of growth in response to climate, and may remain productive in the future in certain locations with specific temperature and precipitation conditions. Our results also suggest that, although aspen are regenerating in the region following fire, future climate could influence regeneration success. Results from our models also suggest that watershed-scale runoff is projected to decline due to climate warming, increases in the annual amount rainfall versus snowfall, and increase in evaporative demand.
This report provides an enhanced understanding of how climate change and fire are likely to alter future aspen ecosystems in the northern Great Basin and central Rockies. Results from our research should help land managers mitigate predicted climate change impacts by evaluating new management strategies and adjusting social and economic goals in areas vulnerable to aspen loss.
