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Candidate Products for Operational Earthquake Forecasting Illustrated Using the HayWired Planning Scenario, Including One Very Quick (and Not‐So‐Dirty) Hazard‐Map Option

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Field, E.H., and Milner, K.R. (2018) Candidate Products for Operational Earthquake Forecasting Illustrated Using the HayWired Planning Scenario, Including One Very Quick (and Not‐So‐Dirty) Hazard‐Map Option. Seismological Research Letters doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170241

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ABSTRACT In an effort to help address debates on the usefulness of operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), we illustrate a number of OEF products that could be automatically generated in near‐real time. To exemplify, we use an MM 7.1 mainshock on the Hayward fault, which is very similar to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) HayWired earthquake planning scenario. Given that there is always some background level of hazard or risk, we emphasize that probability gains (the ratio of short‐term to long‐term‐average estimates) might be of particular interest to users. We also illustrate how such gains are highly sensitive to forecast duration and latency, with the latter representing how long it takes to generate the forecast and/or to take [...]

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Figure 10 - see paper for details..JPG
“Figure 10 - (a) One‐week U3ETAS probability that aftershocks of the HayWired sce”
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Figure 10 - (a) One‐week U3ETAS probability that aftershocks of the HayWired sce
Figure 10 - (a) One‐week U3ETAS probability that aftershocks of the HayWired sce

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  • John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis

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DOI https://www.sciencebase.gov/vocab/category/item/identifier 10.1785/0220170241

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noteField, E.H., and Milner, K.R. (2018) Candidate Products for Operational Earthquake Forecasting Illustrated Using the HayWired Planning Scenario, Including One Very Quick (and Not‐So‐Dirty) Hazard‐Map Option. Seismological Research Letters doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170241

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