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| value | Recent stand-replacing wildfires in late-successional and old-growth (LSOG) forests have increased land manager interest in fire refugia, which could provide vital habitat for threatened and endangered species under global change. The overall goal of this project is to work with managers to coproduce maps of the probability of contemporary fire refugia and stand-replacing fire in LSOG forests based on topography, fuels, fire weather, and climate. These maps and associated products will provide timely information about the likely persistence and loss of LSOG forests under current and future climate conditions. Leveraging the skills and expertise of our research team and stakeholder partners, our specific objectives are to model, map, and share information essential for the conservation of LSOG forest ecosystems in the US Pacific Northwest. Our statistical modeling will employ boosted regression trees, which we will validate with targeted field sampling and aerial imagery at recently burned sites. Based on these statistical models, we will develop probability maps of fire refugia and stand-replacing fire under moderate, high, and extreme fire weather conditions expected with climate change, assessing potential effects on late- and early-successional forests and at-risk species. We will share maps and analytical tools with partners, stakeholders, and the public, using ArcGIS Online to develop a Fire Refugia Atlas, Trend Analysis Tool, and ESRI Story Maps. Our research team includes experts from the USGS, US Forest Service, and Oregon State University. Throughout the project, we will work with cooperators representing federal agencies (US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Forest Service), state agencies (OR Dept. of Fish and Wildlife, OR Dept. of Forestry, WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife), the Nature Conservancy, tribal organizations, and other stakeholders. The products we develop will provide valuable information for forest plan revisions, habitat conservation plans, forest reserve networks, and forest management activities. |
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