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Fire Refugia in Old-Growth Forests: Predicting Habitat Persistence to Support Land Management in an Era of Rapid Global Change

Fire Refugia in Late-Successional Forests: Predicting Habitat Persistence to Support Land Management in an Era of Rapid Global Change
Principal Investigator
Katie Dugger

Dates

Start Date
2018-10-01
End Date
2021-06-30
Release Date
2018

Summary

Mature, old-growth forests in the Pacific Northwest provide critical habitat for threatened and endangered species, including the northern spotted owl and marbled murrelet. Dominated by large Douglas-firs and western hemlocks, these established forests range in age from 200 to 1,000 years old. Yet wildfire activity is increasing across western North America, heightening concerns about severe fires that have the potential to kill the upper canopy layer of forests. Known as “stand-replacing fires”, these extreme events have important implications for forest ecosystems, initiating forest regrowth and altering habitat for wildlife. Identifying locations that are protected from stand-replacing fire is an urgent management priority, particularly [...]

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Purpose

Wildfire activity is increasing across western North America, heightening concerns about high-severity, stand-replacing fire. In the Pacific Northwest, the 2017 fire season included numerous large fires that displaced many people and exemplified the challenges land managers face when working to reduce fire risk in mature and old forests. These forests provide critical habitat for threatened and endangered species, including the northern spotted owl and marbled murrelet. Identifying locations that are protected from stand-replacing fire is an urgent management priority, particularly given projections of more extreme fire weather under climate change. Forest fire refugia - places that experience minimal tree mortality compared to surrounding areas - are associated with specific topographic conditions. Maps of likely fire refugia and stand-replacing fire are integral for the stewardship of wildlife habitat, ecosystem services, and culturally significant species. Working directly with land managers and other stakeholders, we propose three interrelated objectives. First, we will develop statistical models of the probability of fire refugia and stand-replacing fire as a function of topography, fuels, fire weather, and climate. Second, we will map the probabilities of fire refugia and stand-replacing fire across the Pacific Northwest to assess the likely occurrence of mature, fire-resistant and young, post-fire forests under increasingly extreme fire weather. Third, we will share a suite of online applications to provide direct access to maps and analytical tools for land managers, policy makers, and other stakeholders. Maps showing the mature and old forests most likely to persist as fire refugia versus those most susceptible to stand-replacing fire will assist decision makers revising forest plans, implementing habitat conservation plans, and designing forest reserve networks. Maps of likely refugia and stand-replacing fire also will help agencies, tribes, and non-governmental organizations identify locations for barred owl management, early-successional vegetation conservation, and sustainable forest management activities.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueRecent stand-replacing wildfires in late-successional and old-growth (LSOG) forests have increased land manager interest in fire refugia, which could provide vital habitat for threatened and endangered species under global change. The overall goal of this project is to work with managers to coproduce maps of the probability of contemporary fire refugia and stand-replacing fire in LSOG forests based on topography, fuels, fire weather, and climate. These maps and associated products will provide timely information about the likely persistence and loss of LSOG forests under current and future climate conditions. Leveraging the skills and expertise of our research team and stakeholder partners, our specific objectives are to model, map, and share information essential for the conservation of LSOG forest ecosystems in the US Pacific Northwest. Our statistical modeling will employ boosted regression trees, which we will validate with targeted field sampling and aerial imagery at recently burned sites. Based on these statistical models, we will develop probability maps of fire refugia and stand-replacing fire under moderate, high, and extreme fire weather conditions expected with climate change, assessing potential effects on late- and early-successional forests and at-risk species. We will share maps and analytical tools with partners, stakeholders, and the public, using ArcGIS Online to develop a Fire Refugia Atlas, Trend Analysis Tool, and ESRI Story Maps. Our research team includes experts from the USGS, US Forest Service, and Oregon State University. Throughout the project, we will work with cooperators representing federal agencies (US Fish and Wildlife Service, US Forest Service), state agencies (OR Dept. of Fish and Wildlife, OR Dept. of Forestry, WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife), the Nature Conservancy, tribal organizations, and other stakeholders. The products we develop will provide valuable information for forest plan revisions, habitat conservation plans, forest reserve networks, and forest management activities.
projectStatusIn Progress

Budget Extension

annualBudgets
year2018
totalFunds143642.0
parts
typeAward Type
valueCOA
typeAward Number
valueC18000185
totalFunds143642.0

Soda Fire, BLM - Credit
Soda Fire, BLM - Credit

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Spatial Services

ScienceBase WMS

Communities

  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • Northwest CASC

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Additional Information

Identifiers

Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC 649649c9-77b1-4400-95e9-005e3cad02af
StampID NCCWSC NW18-DK1332

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