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  5. Post-Fire Conifer Regeneration Under a Warming Climate: Will Severe Fire Be a Catalyst for Forest Loss?

Post-Fire Conifer Regeneration Under a Warming Climate: Will Severe Fire Be a Catalyst for Forest Loss?

A Southwest CASC Directed Funding FY 2018 Project
Principal Investigator
Phillip van Mantgem

Dates

Start Date
2018-06-27
End Date
2020-06-26
Release Date
2018

Summary

The Southwest U.S. is experiencing hotter droughts, which are contributing to more frequent, severe wildfires. These droughts also stress vegetation, which can make it more difficult for forests to recover after fire. Forest regeneration in burned areas may be limited because seeds have to travel long distances to recolonize, and when they do arrive, conditions are often unfavorably hot and dry. Conifer forests in the region have demonstrated particular difficulty in recovering after fires, and in some cases have transformed into other ecosystem types, such as deciduous-dominated forests or grasslands. Such ecological transformations have implications not only for the plants and animals that depend on conifer forests for habitat, but [...]

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Contacts

Principal Investigator :
Phillip van Mantgem
Funding Agency :
Southwest CASC
Cooperator/Partner :
Adrian J Das, Haiganoush Preisler, Hugh Safford, Kristen Shive, Nathan L Stephenson, James Thorne, Derek Young
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

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SierraNevada_BLM.jpg
“Sierra Nevada, BLM - Credit” 		thumbnail 989.16 KB image/jpeg

Purpose

Large, severe fires are becoming more frequent in the Southwest, which can kill all trees over thousands of acres. Forest regeneration in these areas may be limited because seeds must travel long distances to recolonize these burned areas. In addition, the seeds that do arrive may frequently encounter unfavorably hot, dry conditions as temperatures continue to climb. Managers can respond to these conditions by planting tree seeds and seedlings, but effective response requires knowledge of when and where interventions are needed. To meet this need, this research will extend current models of post-fire seedling establishment in the Sierra Nevada of California, creating forecast maps of likely areas of seedling success and failures that can vary based on two conditions, (1) wet and dry post-fire conditions, and (2) low and high seed inputs. These forecast maps will identify sites and environments that are at high-risk for tree seedling failures that may be targeted for post-fire management – seeding or planting.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueObjectives/Justification: In the Sierra Nevada of California newly developed data and analyses show that post-fire regeneration success is highly dependent on 1) distance to seed sources and seed production, 2) long-term (30 yr) microsite moisture conditions, and 3) short-term (1 to 5 yr) post-fire climate, particularly precipitation. Yet these relationships have only been partially synthesized. We propose to combine these observations into a single tool, allowing managers to plan for post-fire recovery across a range of conditions. Background: Post-fire recruitment in southwestern forests is increasingly difficult as large, severe fires and drought become more common. Poor post-fire recruitment may ultimately lead to long-term changes to these forests, potentially including vegetation type conversions. Decisions to plant seeds or seedlings following fire represent one pathway where managers can shape the recovery and future composition of these forests. Yet management tools currently do not incorporate all of the variability that post-fire environments possess in terms of short-term climate and seed production. Procedures/Methods: Capitalizing on extensive existing data, we will extend current spatially-explicit models of post-fire seedling establishment to include estimates of short-term climate (1 to 5 yr post-fire) and variability in seed inputs (e.g., masting). Expected Products and Information/Technology Transfer: Working closely with managers we will create a decision support tool that can be adjusted based on two conditions, (1) wet and dry post-fire conditions, and (2) low and high seed inputs. At least one peer-reviewed journal article will serve as the basis for this tool. Personnel/Cooperators/Partners: Our research team has extensive publication records in top journals in the fields of climate change impacts, fire science, and forest ecology. Much of our work has focused on understanding the patterns and processes of forest demography in relation to disturbance and climate variability.
projectStatusCompleted

Sierra Nevada, BLM - Credit
Sierra Nevada, BLM - Credit

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  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • Southwest CASC

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Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC ff49ff18-33f4-4b63-b049-3ee629928207
StampID NCCWSC SW18-VP1365

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