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  5. Analyzing the Response of Waterflow to Projected Climate Conditions in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

Analyzing the Response of Waterflow to Projected Climate Conditions in the Upper Rio Grande Basin

Principal Investigator
C David Moeser

Dates

Start Date
2018-07-02
End Date
2021-12-20
Release Date
2018

Summary

Water availability in the upper Rio Grande Basin is dependent on winter and monsoon season precipitation. Consecutive years of drought and above average temperatures have diminished water supply and increased demand for water in this region. The increasing gap between water supply and demand is cause for concern. Climate projections for the southwestern and south central United States suggest that temperatures will continue to increase, affecting seasonal precipitation and water availability. To better manage current water supply and prepare for possible future changes, water managers need projections of future streamflow and landscape conditions that may affect future water supply. The project researchers are currently calibrating [...]

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Contacts

Co-Investigator :
Adrienne Wootten, Toby Welborn, Shaleene Chavarria
Funding Agency :
South Central CASC
Principal Investigator :
C David Moeser
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

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RioGrandeRiver_AlanCressler.jpg
“Rio Grande River, Alan Cressler - Credit” 		thumbnail 604.32 KB image/jpeg

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueObjectives. The project goal is to assess and communicate how future climate may change water availability in the Upper Rio Grande Basin (URGB). Future climate and uncertainty will be defined by 81 downscaled climate projections. Water availability will be defined by Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) simulations and calculation of hydrologic indices that are relevant to stakeholders. Communication will be stakeholder-focused and multi-faceted. Background. Concern is growing over the increasing gap between water supply and demand in the URGB. Future climate may exacerbate this gap. A PRMS model has been developed and calibrated for the URGB that can simulate daily streamflow and landscape-level hydrologic response to climate. Instead of just summarizing response using simple annual average responses, hydrologic indices calculated from daily variables go further by focusing on ecologically and socially relevant responses with meaning to stakeholders, such as number of bank-full floods, magnitude and variability of seasonal flows, number of zero-flow days, days and timing of soil-moisture stress, or drought severity index. Procedures/Methods. An existing collection of 81 downscaled climate projections of daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum temperatures will be spatially disaggregated to provide climate input files for a PRMS model of the URGB with 1,021 subbasins (hydrologic response units [HRUs]). Daily hydrologic response will be simulated and used to calculate hydrologic indices at the landscape (HRU) and watershed outlet (streamflow) scales across the URGB. Importantly, sources of climate-projection uncertainty will be tracked through the collective modeling framework and used to better define future hydrologic responses. Uncertainty envelopes of hydrologic response will provide realistic hydrologic index ranges for future conditions. Expected Products and Information. Results will be communicated by a web-based story map and visualization tools, research publications, and stakeholder presentations. Results are planned for immediate use by the USBR and stakeholders to assist water-management decisions.
projectStatusCompleted

Rio Grande River, Alan Cressler - Credit
Rio Grande River, Alan Cressler - Credit

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  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • South Central CASC

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Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC 077e8437-ff61-4962-8ed7-5040c8eb49ef
StampID NCCWSC SC18-DK1307

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