DCpts, DTpts, SLpts: Dune crest, dune toe, and mean high water shoreline positions: Edwin B. Forsythe NWR, NJ, 2010

Understanding how sea-level rise will affect coastal landforms and the species and habitats they support is critical for crafting approaches that balance the needs of humans and native species. Given this increasing need to forecast sea-level rise effects on barrier islands in the near and long terms, we are developing Bayesian networks to evaluate and to forecast the cascading effects of sea-level rise on shoreline change, barrier island state, and piping plover habitat availability. We use publicly available data products, such as lidar, orthophotography, and geomorphic feature sets derived from those, to extract metrics of barrier island characteristics at consistent sampling distances. The metrics are then incorporated into predictive [...]