The Impact of Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise on Future Flooding of Coastal Parks and Refuges in Hawaiʻi and the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands

Principal Investigator

Curt Storlazzi

Start Date

2019-07-01

End Date

2023-12-30

Release Date

2019

Most assessments of future conditions at coastal National Parks and Wildlife Refuges only consider permanent inundation from sea-level rise (SLR) and do not account for the combined effect of storm driven flooding and SLR in management decisions and planning. The proposed project will address this critical gap. The tropics house many low-lying, coastal National Parks and Wildlife Refuges on coral reef-lined islands that are susceptible to inundation from sea-level rise (SLR) and flooding during storms projected for later this century. Most of these islands have limited adaptation space for ecosystems, cultural resources, and infrastructure that are particularly vulnerable to coastal flooding. SLR will exacerbate the impact of storms by reducing wave breaking on the reefs and thus increase wave-driven coastal flooding and resulting impacts to the critical ecosystems, cultural resources, and infrastructure on National Parks and Wildlife Refuges. To date, most studies that describe future SLR threats have used passive models to simulate SLR inundation of coastal areas that underestimate the timing and magnitude of future flooding by not accounting for storms. NPS and FWS need accurate projections of inundation and flooding to develop adaptation plans now to avoid and/or reduce the loss of invaluable natural and cultural resources and costly infrastructure to storm-driven coastal flooding. We will model coastal flooding for a number of future storm and SLR scenarios to co-produce high-resolution (~10 m2) maps and quantify the impact on natural and biological resources and infrastructure at coastal National Parks on Hawai’i, Guam, Saipan, and American Samoa and Wildlife Refuges on Maui, O’ahu, Kaua’i, Moloka’i, and Guam. Maps and charts visualizing these projections of how flooding will increase spatially through time will provide sound scientific guidance for current and future NPS and FWS management decisions and support the communication of those impacts and necessary management actions to the public.

ScienceBase WMS

• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
• Pacific Islands CASC