Landscape inputs and simulation output for the LANDIS-II model in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

Publication Date

2020-11-20

Start Date

1980-01-01

End Date

2099-12-31

Henne, P.D, Hawbaker, T.J., Scheller, R.M., Zhao, F., He, H.S., Xu, W. and Zhu, Z., 2020, Landscape inputs and simulation output for the LANDIS-II model in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P94IA5B3.

Type: Related Primary Publication

To understand the consequences of climate change for temperate mountain forests, we used LANDIS-II to simulate interactions among climate, wildfire, tree species distributions, and their effects on regional carbon stocks in forests of the GYE. Simulations used historical climate and future potential climate represented by downscaled projections from five general circulation models (GCMs) that bracket the range of variability under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. We found that increasing area burned was the dominant limitation on forest carbon stocks in a warmer and drier climate. By 2100, simulated area burned increased by 26 – 214%, with the largest increases after 2050. Warming increased productivity by extending the growing season, especially near upper treeline, but did not offset biomass losses to fire. The timing of a transition from carbon sink to source varied among GCMs and was delayed under GCMs with large increases in summer precipitation. However, warming >3 °C in mean annual temperature increased the frequency of large fires and resulted in a 10 – 35% reduction in aboveground biomass relative to vegetation simulated under the historical climate. Increasing fire size limited seed dispersal, and reductions in soil moisture limited seedling establishment; both effects will likely constrain long-term forest regeneration and carbon uptake. The GYE is likely to remain a viable terrestrial carbon sink through 2050. During this period, warming may enhance productivity in temperature-limited subalpine forests. However, the GYE will likely have diminishing capacity to sequester carbon after 2050 due to climate-driven increases in fire frequency, and limitations on seedling establishment.

• National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
• North Central CASC
• USGS Data Release Products