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Projections of 5 scenarios of coupled land-use change and groundwater sustainability for California's Central Coast at 270-m (2001-2061) - LUCAS-W Model Output

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Citation

Van Schmidt, N.D., Wilson, T.S., and Langridge, R., 2021, Projections of 5 coupled scenarios of land-use change and groundwater sustainability for California's Central Coast (2001-2061) - LUCAS-W model: U.S. Geological Survey data release, https://doi.org/10.5066/P9209XW4.

Summary

This data release provides the resulting land-use projections for California's Central Coast from 2001-2061 at a resolution of 270-m. Data are provided as (1) annual rasters and (2) summarized as the mean annual transition probability across 10 Monte Carlo iterations. Each package contains folders for five scenarios, which have different sets of management assumptions along two axes: Water management Low/Moderate/High and Land use management Low/Moderate/High. - MM (Moderate/Moderate): a scenario where water demand caps reduce development in overdrafted groundwater basins based on current total water supplies, and where prime farmland and groundwater recharge areas will be protected from urban sprawl (i.e., land use projections assuming [...]

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Attached Files

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stsm-lulc.zip
“LUCAS-W LULC Outputs”
63.4 MB application/zip
stsm-transition-probability.zip
“LUCAS-W Transition Probability Outputs”
4.7 MB application/zip

Purpose

The sustainable management of groundwater is inextricably linked to land use-land cover change and to the long-term resilience of local communities. There is a pressing need to understand how the dynamic couplings and feedbacks between institutional rules to manage the resource, land use changes, and groundwater storage affect water availability and sustainability, and to assess approaches to enhance the resilience of these coupled systems. California’s Central Coast, a major agricultural area that is almost entirely dependent on local groundwater supplies, provides a microcosm for understanding such linkages. The LUCAS-W model produces land use change maps and water sustainability estimates, enabling a regional-scale understanding of the coupled processes of water sustainability and development. This dataset provides researchers with a range of development projections under different sets of management assumptions: patterns of development that do not stabilize “business-as-usual” (WL), assume that water demand stabilizes at a range of possible sustainable water supply levels (MM, WH), and that assume a relatively unregulated (LL) or tightly compact (LH) pattern of future development.

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  • USGS Data Release Products

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